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Twin Cities Growth Trends On The Move

Source: Star Tribune
By David Peterson
March 21, 2007

New census data show Twin Cities suburban growth slowing, with Hennepin and Ramsey counties bouncing back a bit. Condos, popular in the downtowns of core cities, helped drive the change.

The years of declining population in the Twin Cities' urban core while some suburban counties were among the nation's fastest growing may be coming to an end.

U.S. Census estimates to be released today show suburban growth slowing as the more urban Hennepin and Ramsey counties bounce back.

The Meyers love their new condo (left).

Hennepin County shows its first uptick in four years, gaining 3,300 residents since last year. Ramsey County lost population for a fifth year in a row but at a much slower rate. And suburban Scott County, ranked not long ago as one of the 10 fastest growing counties in the nation, no longer makes the top 100 in the most recent year, from 2005 to 2006.

The new trend, stemming in part from the popularity of condos in downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul, may be driven by an aging population of empty-nesters willing to trade bigger homes in the suburbs for smaller ones closer to theaters and other amenities that cities offer.

"There's been tremendous growth, a lot of new construction," said Peter McLaughlin, a Hennepin County commissioner. "We're seeing the results of that. Frankly, I think the traffic congestion is driving people in from the suburbs. I also think there is a little bit of an empty-nester phenomenon going on."

Jack Meyer and his wife, Mary Lou, exemplify the population shift detected by the new census data.

"We're a mile and a half from the new Gophers stadium, and we'll see the lights from the new Twins ballpark from our living room," said Jack Meyer, a semi-retired businessman. He's moving into a new eighth-floor condo across the river from downtown Minneapolis, having sold his secluded home near Lake Minnetonka. "My wife and I love sports, so this place is doing it for us," he said.

While the condo boom has slowed in recent months, Minneapolis remains the region's leading city for newly permitted housing units. The question is how long that turnaround will last.

"These numbers tell me that we're catching our breath," said Michael Noonan, president of the Builders Association of the Twin Cities. "There's been a phenomenal number of new homes in both St. Paul and Minneapolis." Suburban growth remains robust. The state's fastest growing counties in percentage terms in the most recent period, from 2005 to 2006, are Sherburne and Wright, followed by Scott.

Michael Sobota, community development director for Scott County, sees the latest trends as temporary.

"Anyone paying attention to the housing market knows that it's in a 'correction mode' now, if you will, which is understandable and normal if you look at growth cycles," he said. "But we are planning for continued growth."

The case for a genuine long-term population drift from suburbs to the two inner metro counties goes to the underlying demographics: growth in the numbers of empty-nest baby boomers and young singles, and a dropoff in the number of families with younger children.

"If the right situation came up, I'd like to not be single," said Andrew Rolnick, a 34-year-old financial planner who moved from the suburbs to the Carlyle, a new residential tower in downtown Minneapolis near the river. "Life in Plymouth wasn't conducive to my social life. All of a sudden the loft/condo thing started kicking in, and I decided I needed to make a change."

He wound up much closer to work as well. But Doug Kinneberg, 28, who live in Skyscape, another downtown Minneapolis condo tower, said he likes living there even though he works in Eden Prairie. "You're five minutes from the bars on the Mall, five minutes to a walk on the river," he said.

With buildings like Skyscape, the Carlyle, and the Meyers' Cobalt just now being occupied, the trend should continue.

Estimates remain just that, however, and demographics experts await a definitive word on population in the next true census, in 2010. Tom Gillaspy, the state demographer, said he thinks it's too early to determine if the census data suggest a "sudden resurgence" in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. But he also thinks it's possible that more baby boomers whose children have left home could be shifting to urban neighborhoods that are closer to amenities and hospitals and so forth.

"Urban growth is a very dynamic thing," Noonan said. "You can be very hot for a period of time, and then things change."

© Star Tribune

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